Human Wrongs Watch
Photo by UNICEF 2010/Olivier Asselin
Although not yet based on definite scientific projections, the proven speed with which the process of climate change has been taking place, might lead to such a scenario by 2050. If so, 1 in 9 human beings would be on the move by then.
Currently, forecasts vary from 25 million to 1 billion environmental migrants by 2050, moving either within their countries or across borders, on a permanent or temporary basis, with 200 million being the most widely cited estimate, according to a 2015 study carried out by the Institute for Environment and Human Security of the United Nations University.
“This figure equals the current estimate of international migrants worldwide.”
Other specialised sources estimate that “every second, one person is displaced by disaster.” On this, the Oslo-based Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) reports that in 2015 only, more than 19.2 million people fled disasters in 113 countries. “Disasters displace three to ten times more people than conflict and war worldwide.”
Children celebrate International Migrants Day in Egypt, 18 December 2016. Photo: Ingy Mehanna/UN Migration Agency (IOM) 2016
One Person Displaced Every Second
As climate change continues, adds NRC, it will likely lead to more frequent and severe natural hazards; the impact will be heavy, warns this independent humanitarian organisation providing aid and assistance to people forced to flee.
“On average, 26 million people are displaced by disasters such as floods and storms every year. That’s one person forced to flee every second.” See: Climate Victims – Every Second, One Person Is Displaced by Disaster
For its part, the UN International Organization for Migration (IOM) also forecasts 200 million environmental migrants by 2050, moving either within their countries or across borders, on a permanent or temporary basis. Many of them would be coastal population.
In an interview to IPS, the IOM Director General William Lacy Swing explained that political crises and natural disasters are the other major drivers of migration today.
“We have never had so many complex and protracted humanitarian emergencies now happening simultaneously from West Africa all the way to Asia, with very few spots in between which do not have some issue.”
The UN specialised body’s chief added “We have today 40 million forcibly displaced people and 20 million refugees, the greatest number of uprooted people since the Second World War.” See: Q&A: Crisis and Climate Change Driving Unprecedented Migration
Women in Somali region, where 3.3 million people suffer from hunger and need urgent support. Photo: FAO/Tamiru Legesse.
Droughts, Desertification
Another warning comes from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), which estimates that some 135 million people may be displaced by 2045 as a result of desertification.
Up to 12 million hectares of productive land become barren every year due to desertification and drought alone, which is a lost opportunity to produce 20 million tons of grain, adds the Bonn-based Convention secretariat.
Meantime, the increase in droughts and flash floods that are stronger, more frequent and widespread is destroying the land – the Earth’s main fresh water store, according to UNCCD.
“Droughts kill more people than any other single weather-related catastrophe and conflicts among communities over water scarcity are gathering pace. Over 1 billion people today have no access to water, and demand will increase by 30 per cent by 2030.”
On the other hand, getting sustainable energy to all represents one of the biggest development challenges of the 21st century, it continues.
“Research suggests that 1.4 billion people — over 20 per cent of the global population — lack access to electricity, and that at least 2.7 billion people — some 40 cent of the global population — rely on the traditional use of biomass for cooking.”
In short, land, water and energy as resources are all pillars of our survival and of sustainable development.
“They stand or fall together. To be sustainable and in particular to reach poor rural populations, we need to enhance supply, access and security across all three pillars, at the same time, while supporting global climate ambitions.”
National Security, Migration
On this, based on the UN Environment Programme’s 2009 study “From Conflict to Peace-building. The Role of Natural Resources and the Environment,” UNCCD reminds that 40 per cent of all intrastate conflicts in the past 60 years are linked to the control and allocation of natural resources.
“The exposure of more and more poor people to water scarcity and hunger opens the door to the failure of fragile states and regional conflicts. Non-state actor groups are increasingly taking advantage of large cross-border migration flows and abandoned lands.”
Where natural assets including land are poorly managed, warns the Convention, violence might become the dominant means of resource control, forcing natural resource assets out of the hands of legitimate government.
Meanwhile, the number of international migrants worldwide has been on the rise. According to the International migration report (2015), their number has continued to grow rapidly over the past fifteen years reaching 244 million in 2015, up from 222 million in 2010 and 173 million in 2000.
Losing productive land is driving people to make risky life choices, says UNCCD, adding that in rural areas where people depend on scarce productive land resources, land degradation is a driver of forced migration.
Africa is particularly susceptible since more than 90 per cent of economy depends on a climate-sensitive natural resource base like rain-fed, subsistence agriculture.
“Unless we change the way we manage our land, in the next 30 years we may leave a billion or more vulnerable poor people with little choice but to fight or flee.”
Related:
- Yemen: African Migrants Beaten, Starved, Sexually Violated by Criminal Groups
- Smugglers Throw Hundreds of African Migrants Off Boats Headed to Yemen
- Millions of Women and Children for Sale for Sex, Slavery, Organs…
- African Migrant Women Face “Shocking Sexual Abuse” on Journey to Europe
- No Access to Justice for Migrant Workers in South-East Asia
- It’s World Day Against Trafficking in Persons. What Do We Need to Do Now?
- Migrants Crossing US-Mexico Border Dying at Faster Rate. More Deaths in Mediterranean
- Not Just Numbers: Migrants Tell Their Stories
- This Is the Nation of 170 Million Enslaved Children
- Climate Change-Poverty-Migration: The New, Inhuman ‘Bermuda Triangle’
- ‘Address African Rural Youth Unemployment Now or They Will Migrate’
- Migrant Contributions to Development: Creating a “New Positive Narrative”
- Putting the Spotlight on Women Migrant Workers
- No Wall for Ethiopia, Rather an Open Door—Even for Its Enemy
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*Author: Baher Kamal, Egyptian-born, Spanish-national secular journalist. He is founder and publisher of Human Wrongs Watch. More articles by Baher Kamal in Human Wrongs Watch:
Yemen: African Migrants Beaten, Starved, Sexually Violated by Criminal Groups
Can the Gender Gap Be Measured in Dollars Only?
Millions of Women and Children for Sale for Sex, Slavery, Organs…
Migrants – The Increasingly Expensive Deadly Voyages
Not Just Numbers: Migrants Tell Their Stories
Climate Change-Poverty-Migration: The New, Inhuman ‘Bermuda Triangle’
Drought Pushes 1 in 3 Somalis to a Hunger Knife-Edge
Mideast: Drought to Turn People into Eternal Migrants, Prey to Extremism?
More Plastic than Fish or How Politicians Help Ocean Destruction
The Relentless March of Drought – That ‘Horseman of the Apocalypse
Re-Connect with Nature Now… Before It Is Too Late!
The ‘Water-Employment-Migration’ Explosive Nexus
Asia: 260 Million Indigenous Peoples Marginalised, Discriminated
Mideast: Growing Urbanisation Worsens Water Scarcity, Food Imports
A Grisly Tale of Children Falling Easy Prey to Ruthless Smugglers
Agony of Mother Earth (I) The Unstoppable Destruction of Forests
Agony of Mother Earth (II) World’s Forests Depleted for Fuel
Who Are the Best ‘Eaters’ and How to Use Eggplants as a Toothbrush
African Migrants Bought and Sold Openly in ‘Slave Markets’ in Libya
The Very Survival of Africa’s Indigenous Peoples ‘Seriously Threatened’
20 Million People Could ‘Starve to Death’ in Next Six Months
Indigenous Peoples – Best Allies or Worst Enemies?
Middle East, Engulfed by a ‘Perfect Storm’
Yemen, World’s Largest Humanitarian Crisis
ACP: One Billion People to Speak To Europe with One Voice
Did You Know that the Oceans Have It All?
The Unbearable Cost of Drought in Africa
‘Humanity and Social Justice, a Must for the Future of Work’
Work, What Future? Seven Big Questions Needing Urgent Response
Plastic No More… Also in Kenya
Climate Breaks All Records: Hottest Year, Lowest Ice, Highest Sea Level
New Evidence Confirms Risk That Mideast May Become Uninhabitable
The Indigenous ‘People of Wildlife’ Know How to Protect Nature
These Women Cannot Celebrate Their Day
Antarctic Ice Lowest Ever – Asia at High Risk – Africa Drying Up
UN Declares War on Ocean Plastic
Of Arabs and Muslims and the Big Ban
Every Year 700 Million People Fall Ill from Contaminated Food
A Dire Vacuum in a World in Crisis
Indigenous Peoples Lands Guard 80 Per Cent of World’s Biodiversity
World’s 40,000 MP’s Must Enjoy Their Rights – But Are They?
Want to Prevent Stroke, Diabetes, Cancer? Get Moving… Now!
Trump to Pull Out of the UN, Expel It from the US?
Inequality (III): Less Employment… and More ‘Junk’ Jobs
Inequality (II): “It Will Take 170 Years for Women to Be Paid as Men Are”
Inequality (I): Half of World’s Wealth, in the Pockets of Just Eight Men
Poor Darwin – Robots, Not Nature, Now Make the Selection
When Your Healers Become Your Killers
Is Cash Aid to the Poor Wasted on Tobacco and Alcohol?
Poor Darwin – Robots, Not Nature, Now Make the Selection
When Your Healers Become Your Killers
Is Cash Aid to the Poor Wasted on Tobacco and Alcohol?
“Bonn Has Become an Insider Tip on the International Stage”
Battle of the Desert (and III): The Silk Road
Battle of the Desert (II): A ‘Great Green Wall for Africa’
Battle of the Desert (I): To Fight or to Flee?
Children of the ‘Others’, Sons of Minor Gods
World to Cut Gas Emissions by 25 Percent More Than Paris Agreement
Toxic Air – The ‘Invisible Killer’ that Stifles 300 Million Children
Climate Doomsday – Another Step Closer
What Happens When a Small Farmer Migrates?
‘The Earth Is Not Flat; It Is Urban’
Take a Deep Breath?… But 9 in 10 People Live with Excessive Air Pollution!
Believe It or Not, Pulses Reduce Gas Emissions!
Ships Bring Your Coffee, Snack and TV Set, But Also Pests and Diseases
One Humanity? Millions of Children Tortured, Smuggled, Abused, Enslaved…
Arable Lands Lost at Unprecedented Rate: 33,000 Hectares… a Day!
War on Climate Terror (II): Fleeing Disasters, Escaping Drought, Migrating
War on Climate Terror (I): Deserts Bury Two Thirds of African Lands
African Farmers Can Feed the World, If Only…
Climate Victims – Every Second, One Person Is Displaced by Disaster
400 Million People Live with Hepatitis But They Do Not Know
Rights of Indigenous Peoples ‘Critical’ to Combat Climate Change
Forests: To Farm or Not to Farm? That’s the Question!
‘Monster’ El Niño Subsides, ‘Monster’ La Niña Hitting Soon
‘Modern World Is Chaotic, Confused; Human Security a Must’
Xenophobic Rhetoric, Now Socially and Politically ‘Acceptable’ ?
‘Hate Is Mainstreamed, Walls Are Back, Suspicion Kills’
What If Turkey Drops Its “Human Bomb” on Europe?
Humanitarian Aid – Business As Unusual?
World Oceans Day – A Death Sea Called Mediterranean
The Humanitarian Clock Is Ticking, The Powerful Feign Deafness
Humanitarian Summit, The Big Fiasco
Humanitarian Summit: Too Big to Fail?
Humanitarian Summit Aims to Mobilise Up to 30 Billion Dollars
Africa, Resolved to Address African Problems With African Solutions
‘We Cannot Keep Jumping from Crisis to Crisis’
‘Human Suffering Has Reached Staggering Levels’
Now 1 in 2 World’s Refugees Live in Urban Areas
Middle East – The Mother of All Humanitarian Crises
Mideast: 1 in 3 Pays Bribe to Access Basic Public Services
Climate: Africa’s Human Existence at Severe Risk
No Water in the Kingdom of the Two Seas – Nor Elsewhere
Will the Middle East Become ‘Uninhabitable’?
Can an Animal Heist Fable Help Solve the Middle East Crisis?
A “Colombian Triangle” for Daesh in Libya?
‘Take My Iraqis and Give Me Some Syrians’ – Europe to Turkey
New Nuclear Hysteria in the Middle East
Africa Launches Largest Trading Block with 620 Million Consumers
Big War Lords Playing Brinkmanship Game in Syria
Cameron at large: Want Not to Become a Terrorist? Speak Fluent English!
Women’s Rights First – African Summit
Africa, Only If It Bleeds It Leads?
Seven Top Challenges Facing African Women
Once Auctioned, What to Do with the ‘Stock’ of Syrian Refugees?
Silence, Please! A New Middle East Is in the Making
The Over-Written, Under-Reported Middle East (II): 99.5 Years of (Imposed) Solitude
The Over-Written, Under-Reported Middle East (I): Of Arabs and Muslims
Egypt in the Rear Mirror (I): The Irresistible Temptation to Analyse What One Ignores
Egypt in the Rear Mirror (II): Who Are the Not-So-Invisible Powers Behind the Troglodytes?
Fed Up With Empty Promises, The Arabs May Abandon Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Anti-Nukes Move from Norway to Bahrain
Middle East Nuclear Free Bid Moves to Finland – Yet Another Lost Chance?
Annual Spending on Nuclear Weapons, Equivalent To UN Budget For 45 Years
Watch The Sky–It May Rain Atomic Bombs
Save The Planet? Just Eat Cars, Drink Fuel!
Who Is Afraid of 300 Or 400 Or 500 Million Miserables?
Violence And Death For Millions Of Life-Givers
Whither Egypt (I) – Did You Say Dictatorship?
Whither Egypt (II) – Economic Bankruptcy
Politicians Promote Fossil Fuels with Half a Trillion Dollars a Year
Who Dares to Challenge a 32 Billion Dollars Business – Human Trafficking?
Palestine: Yet Another One Hundred Years of Solitude
Does Anyone Know Anything About A New Country Called South Sudan?
South Sudan: Yet Another Kitchen-Garden?
Somalia? Which Somalia? Some Facts About Everybody’s — Nobody’s Land
Baher Kamal
HUMAN WRONGS WATCH 